Unemployment Claims Have The Largest Increase Since March 2020

Change In Initial Claims

jumped by 181,000. That’s the largest increase since the massive surge of 3.6 million on Mar. 28, 2020.

Initial Claims Trend Turns Up

Initial State Unemployment Claims

Initial State Unemployment Claims

Initial claims bottomed at 711,000 on Nov. 7, 2020 and have been rising in a choppy fashion since then.

Continued Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims

s lag initial claims by a week. Continued claims appear to have bottomed and likely have.

A number of people dropped off the rolls because they expired all of their weekly benefits.

Although Congress extended emergency benefits such as PUA and PEUC, those programs expired for a short while. Numbers for those programs are even more distorted so I will wait for a bit to comment.

Jobs Recovery Has Gone Into Reverse

Nonfarm Payrolls

Nonfarm Payrolls

Last Friday I noted Jobs Decline for the First Time in 8 Months

Today’s unemployment claims number strengthen the idea the jobs recovery has stalled.

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