Futures are looking up today, but I think it is too early to draw any definitive conclusions that we have seen the end of these Reddit Red Raider market marvels not to mention should we be worried about the tip of the iceberg scenario when it comes to systemic risk and what other colossal paper loses are lurking below the surface?
Notwithstanding further developments on this front, I expect more deleveraging, in general, this week, which to me is a market negative given broad ownership of market leaders and heavyweights.
I’m not sure where the incremental buyers are for these names will come from, which makes me more worried about the concentration of consensus long legs than short ones.
When you get into the realms of positioning risk, rather than fundamental macro-based risk, it opens up a whole new can of worms that keeps leading me back to one certainty and one certainty only and that you can not hold a multi-asset risk view in this current environment.
OPEC+ members seem to be taking their commitment to output cuts seriously: a Bloomberg report citing an unnamed OPEC delegate claims January compliance with the targets was at 99%, with OPEC members at 103% and non-OPEC at 93%. Iraq plans to reduce production in January and February to compensate for failure to achieve its quota last year. The unilateral 1mb/d production cut from Saudi Arabia in February and March will ensure aggregate compliance remains high, and supply remains below demand. Indeed, music to the oil market ear. And with the JMMC unlikely to deliver price planks are all in place with the street awaiting word on the US stimulus deal for the next bullish impulse.
Retail interest in continues, with the metal up almost 20% over two trading sessions. That is bringing a renewed interest in the other precious metals as well, with and well-positioned to benefit. It should all reflect how many s have been printed by the Fed and paid out by the Treasury in the US throughout the past year’s stimulus packages. Indeed the environment should remain inflationary for a while. Silver could see an additional spike in volatility around the US cash equities open today.
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