No Strong Signals Into OPEC Meeting

OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee met Wednesday before full meeting, but made no recommendation on production.

The JTC meeting the day before revised down estimated 2021 demand for and Bloomberg cited OPEC’s Secretary-General as saying “we should not be out smelling the flowers just yet.”

The base case is still that production will be flat at current levels for another month. Yet, we shouldn’t rule out possible surprises. Saudi Arabia may push for deeper/longer cuts, or OPEC+ members, notably Russia and the UAE, could push for an increase. There are no strong signals in either direction yet, hence the markets tightrope price action in Asia. 

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