EUR/USD: Bear Trend

Bear trend since Jan. 6, and especially strong since Feb. 25.

Bears want selloff to collapse to below Nov. 4 low, which was start of yearend rally.

But nested wedge sell climax usually leads to profit takers. Probably will get short covering rally for 2-to 3-weeks before reaching Nov. 4 low. That low is target on weekly chart, since it is start of third leg up in wedge.

2 small sideways days from 2 days ago might be Final Bear Flag.

If today is bull bar, especially closing near its high, it could be start of short covering rally.

First target for bulls is Mar. 9 low, which is the most recent breakout point.

Next target is the Mar. 18 high, which was the start of the third leg down in the wedge.


Overnight Forex trading on 5-minute chart

Reversed up from below yesterday’s low, but then had 50% correction.

In trading range for 2 hours.

Bulls want trend resumption up, and for today to close near the high. Today would then be a buy signal bar for nested wedge bottom on daily chart.

Bears want overnight rally to be bull trap. They want today to close on the low and for 3-month bear trend to continue.

Day traders have been buying and selling since 50% pullback 4 hours ago. But if there is going to be a trend, up is more likely because the overnight rally was strong, and the daily chart is in a sell climax.

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